CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 06/02 - 06Z MON 07/02 2005
ISSUED: 06/02 00:32Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across SW Mediterranean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

High-amplitude upper flow pattern will persist over Europe through the period ... briefly morphing into omega shaped flow pattern towards late Sunday afternoon as Atlantic upper trough continues to dig south. Vort max at its E periphery is progged to overspread the W Mediterranean Sea and will likely be focus for scattered TSTMS.

DISCUSSION

...SE Mediterranean...
Scattered TSTMS should continue ahead of vort max crossing the W Mediterranean. CAPE and shear are expected to be quite meager ... and severe TSTM threat should be accordingly low.

Farther east ... quite shallow convection has produced quite a few TSTMS over the ERN Mediterranean late on Saturday. It looks that depth of convection will further decrease on Sunday so that no TSTM outlook appears to be necessary for the S Ionian/Aegean Sea. An isolated lightning strike or two may occur however despite the shallow nature of the convective layer.

...E Atlantic...
Benard type convection off the European Atlantic coast should continue to spread southwards. Uncertainty exists on how much of an influence slightly increasing SSTs will have on the effectiveness of charge separation ... but current thinking is that at best very isolated TSTMS will occur ... not warranting a TSTM area ATTM.

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